Note: I did not expect to have time to write this but was able to quickly pull something together. That said, this analysis is not as polished as usual (and is missing any data from 2022). Hopefully you still find it useful.
As the final draft weekend approaches, managers around the country are doing their final draft prep. While I published my Snake Draft review a few weeks ago, my main league is actually an auction draft which adds its own complexities. As I do my own final prep, I wanted to review 2023 auction drafts to see the most effective roster constructions. Last year, the "Stars and Scrubs" approach saw managers investing heavily in elite players like Christian McCaffrey and Justin Jefferson. Was their high cost justified or should managers have focused on mid-tier players like Ken Walker who offered reliable, cost-effective option and allowed managers to build depth across every position.
Looking ahead to 2024, emerging stars like Bijan Robinson and Garrett Wilson could reshape draft strategies. My previous analysis suggests a focus on a snake draft style roster, but will that continue? Let's look back at the 2023 season to see what worked, what didn't, and what we should target this year.
The Data
We'll be using draft data from both ESPN and Sleeper leagues. Since auction drafts are less common—and to streamline this analysis—we've combined platforms and league types to get a general sense of how different roster constructions performed. We’re comparing ~13,000 teams from ~1,200 leagues, focusing only on teams active throughout the entire season. All prices have been normalized to a $200 budget for easier comparisons. If you plan to use this data, adjust it to fit your league's budget limits.
For comparison, we'll refer to data from my previous auction analysis. Unfortunately, the 2022 data is unavailable, so we'll compare 2023 to a three-year average from 2019-2021.
With that, let's dive into the key question: How much should you spend on your top players?
How To Spread Out Your Budget
2nd order regression fits of the total spent on your top X players vs odds at a championship. The blue line represents 2023 data while the orange line is the average of 2019-2021. The red horizontal line represents a team's base odds at a championship.
The 2023 data closely mirrors historical averages, suggesting that a strategy similar to a snake draft is optimal for auction formats. This means spending around $50-60 on your top player, $40 on your second, and $30 on your third. Essentially, you should allocate nearly all your budget to your top five players, leaving only $20-30 for your bench.
Given that the overall spending strategy remains consistent, the next question is: how should you allocate your budget across positions?
How Much To Spend Per Position
Regressions examining how money spent at different starting positions affected championship odds. The blue line represents 2023 data while the orange line is the average of 2019-2021. The red line is the base championship odds.
Unlike the overall distribution of prices, the distribution of spending across positions in 2023 showed some notable deviations from historical trends. Here's a breakdown of what worked best last season:
Quarterback (QB): Spending around $20 on a QB aligned well with championship odds. This suggests that mid-tier quarterbacks provided solid value, balancing the budget effectively while still delivering strong performances.
Running Back 1 (RB1): The data shows a clear bifurcation: either invest heavily (>$60) in a top-tier RB or go the opposite route, spending less than $10. This indicates that both the "Hero RB" and the "Zero RB" strategies were successful. The emergence of RBs like David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, and Devon Achane likely helped here.
Running Back 2 (RB2): Successful teams generally spent less than $20 on their RB2, indicating that managers either punted this position to save budget or found value in cheaper, emerging players. This supports the "Zero RB" strategy, where RB2 is often a rotational spot filled with later-round or waiver pickups.
Wide Receiver 1 (WR1): Spending around $40 on a WR1 was optimal, reinforcing the idea that securing a strong, reliable receiver at this price point was key.
Wide Receiver 2 (WR2): The data shows two effective strategies: spending in the $15-20 range or going up to the $40s. This suggests flexibility in WR2 spending, where either a strong mid-tier WR2 or pairing two higher-end WRs could lead to success.
Tight End (TE): Spending in the $30s or opting for a near-punt with $1 yielded the best results. We also see managers punished for truly spending up ($40+) for Travis Kelce, similar to the snake draft.
Flex: The ideal spending for the Flex position was in the $25-40 range, suggesting that a strong mid-tier player provided the necessary depth to round out rosters.
The success of the Zero or Hero RB strategy in 2023 is likely to persist into 2024, with top WRs continuing to be strong differentiators in roster construction. However, one potential shift could be a decrease in spending on tight ends. Given the predicted depth at the position this year it might be possible to save some budget there without sacrificing too much production.
Limitations
One limitation is that this analysis combines data from multiple platforms and league types, which can blur the specific nuances that different league settings impose on player values and optimal builds. Variations in scoring systems, roster configurations, and league rules can all impact how you should approach an auction draft.
Additionally, auction drafts are particularly unpredictable because managers tend to be more aggressive in targeting their preferred players (which will change league to league). This can lead to bidding wars and unexpected price surges along with random discounts. Such variance makes it essential to adjust these general insights based on what you know about your league’s dynamics and the tendencies of your fellow managers.
Conclusion
In summary, the 2023 auction draft data reinforces the importance of strategic budget allocation, with successful approaches often mirroring a snake draft in structure. The Zero or Hero RB strategy proved effective, as did focusing spending on top wide receivers. However, the unpredictable nature of auction drafts means it's crucial to adapt these strategies to your specific league dynamics. As we look ahead to 2024, staying flexible and responsive to emerging trends will be key to gaining a competitive edge.
Happy Drafting All!
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