My wife and I have recently been binging Food Network's latest cooking competition, Bobby's Triple Threat. The network appears to be positioning the show as the next Beat Bobby Flay, even bringing Bobby in to host. But does it have the same prestige? With three seasons already aired, we can use some of the same approaches I used in my "How to Beat Bobby Flay" post to break down strategies for this new competition. Let’s dive in.
Hosted by celebrity chef Bobby Flay, the show pits guest chefs against "culinary titans" Michael Voltaggio, Brooke Williamson, and Tiffany Derry across three rounds. In each round, both chefs must highlight two ingredients. For the first two rounds, Bobby surprises the chefs with the ingredients, while in the third round, the guest chef selects them. After the ingredients are announced, the guest chef chooses which titan to compete against for that round. Judging is done blind with a different judge each episode, who evaluates all three rounds. Importantly, after round one, chefs learn who the judge is, allowing them to tailor their dishes to the judge's palate in rounds two and three.
This setup offers a few strategic angles to explore: which titan to face in each round and which ingredients to bring for the final challenge. Given the consistent scoring format, we can also evaluate who has been the strongest competitor so far.
The Data
So far, 26 episodes of Bobby's Triple Threat have aired, with the titans winning exactly half of them (13 total). For this post, we can scrape the data we need from Wikipedia, including information on the guest chefs, judges, highlighted ingredients, when each titan competed, and the round-by-round scores. After collecting this data, we’ll process it to facilitate comparison.
First, we’ll adjust the scoring. While rounds 1 and 2 are scored out of 10, round 3 is scored out of 20 to heighten suspense. To standardize the comparison, we’ll divide round 3 scores by half, bringing all rounds to a base score out of 10. Next, since the judges change every episode, we’ll normalize the scores by episode averages, helping us determine if a dish was above or below average for that particular episode.
Additionally, judges often mention that they are more critical in the early rounds to challenge the chefs. We can quantify this effect and adjust accordingly. On average, scores increase by 0.47 standard deviations per round (as shown in the graph on the right). To account for this, we’ll treat round two as the baseline, adding 0.47 standard deviations to round one scores and subtracting the same from round three scores. I will also include the raw scores to help with interpretability, but remember that the corrected score is the one we care about.
With the data prepared, we can now dive into the analysis.
Ranking the Titans
Judge | Raw Average Score | Raw Score Variability | Corrected Average Score |
Brooke Williamson | 8.02 | 1.14 | 0.26 |
Michael Voltaggio | 7.2 | 1.25 | -0.03 |
Tiffany Derry | 7.31 | 1.44 | -0.12 |
Analyzing the titan performances reveals a clear hierarchy. Brooke consistently performs the best, standing out with scores well above average. Surprisingly, She is the only one, with Michael scoring around the show’s overall average and Tiffany actually falling slightly below average. Another key takeaway is that, on average, the titans score between 29 and 30 points (after adjusting by doubling one of the scores), giving us a target score to beat if ever on the show.
When to challenge the titans
To determine when to challenge each titan, let's start by looking at when they typically compete:
Titan | R1 count | R2 count | R3 count |
Michael Voltaggio | 13 | 9 | 2 |
Tiffany Derry | 8 | 7 | 9 |
Brooke Williamson | 3 | 8 | 13 |
Interestingly, the contestants show a clear pattern in their choices: they prefer to start with Voltaggio, finish with Brooke, and face Tiffany whenever she’s available. Based on the average scores, this is surprising, but there may be some strategy behind it. Let’s break down the titan scores by round to explore the logic behind these decisions.
Titan | Avg R1 Score (corrected score) | Avg R2 Score (corrected score) | Avg R3 Score (corrected score) |
Michael Voltaggio | 6.9 (0.03) | 7.2 (-0.37) | 9 (1.13) |
Tiffany Derry | 6.5 (-.32) | 7.4 (-0.13) | 7.9 (0.04) |
Brooke Williamson | 7 (0.25) | 8 (0.42) | 8.3 (0.07) |
Breaking down the titan scores by round, it appears contestants are following close to the optimal strategy. Without factoring in the ingredients (which we’ll address below), the ideal order seems to be Tiffany Derry first, Michael Voltaggio second, and finishing with Brooke Williamson. I’d like more data on how Voltaggio performs in the final round and how Brooke fares in the first but gathering that information might require contestants to risk their chances for the sake of future strategy insights.
Side note: The Strongest Contestant
With our adjusted scores, we can not only identify the strongest titan but also compare contestants on equal footing to determine who truly dominated the competition. So, who came in and left the biggest mark? Let’s dive into the data to find out who the strongest contestant has been.
Strip plot of corrected contestant scores. Vertical lines mark the average performance of the three titans while the color of the dots mark if a contestant won (green) or lost (red).
Several key insights emerge from the data. First, to win, you must outperform Tiffany and Michael. Beating Brooke helps but isn't essential for victory. Notably, three chefs truly dominated: Sylvia Barban cooked 0.4 standard deviations above average, Brittany Anderson achieved 0.7 above average, and Shirley Chung outshined the titans by winning every round and cooking 0.9 standard deviations above the average.
I also want to highlight Kevin Lee—a red dot amid a sea of green around 0.25—who faced the titans on a tough day. He cooked 0.25 standard deviations above average, ranking as the sixth strongest contestant and well within the score range that typically secures a win. Yet, he didn't prevail. It's a reminder that none of these strategies are guaranteed.
Titans and Ingredients
We can categorize the different ingredients into broad categories (Vegetables, Poultry, Dairy, etc.) to try to help us strategize which contestant to challenge based on the ingredients. This can also help us plan what 2 ingredients to bring.
Bar plots of titan scores based on the feature ingredients. The 3 rows are grouped by larger categories (namely meat, plants, and other).
When we analyze different ingredient categories, distinct strengths and weaknesses begin to emerge. To exploit the titans' weaknesses and avoid their strengths, consider this strategy:
Target Tiffany with beef and fruit, while avoiding seafood and grains.
Target Michael with pork or beef, but steer clear of grains and fruit.
Target Brooke with seafood and fruit, while avoiding beef.
While these advantages exist, they are relatively subtle, and it’s unclear whether they outweigh the order recommendations discussed earlier.
Limitations
As with any analysis, there are limitations—especially due to the small sample size. For instance, at the time of writing, Michael has only competed in the final round twice. Additionally, the wide variety of ingredients required me to use broad categories, which introduces more variability (e.g. pork loin and bacon are both pork based but are really completely different cuts of meat). Still, even with these constraints, some clear trends are beginning to emerge.
Putting it all together
So, you've earned the chance to compete on Bobby's Triple Threat. What should you do?
Go in knowing you'll need to outperform both Tiffany Derry and Michael Voltaggio. They are the weaker titans and beating them gives you the best chance to secure a win before facing Brooke.
The ideal order is to target Tiffany first, Voltaggio second, and Brooke last.
You may need to adjust based on the ingredients presented, but in most cases, you’ll be working with what’s given. Be sure to bring seafood for the final round to maximize your chances against Brooke.
Finally, remember, there are no guarantees—you can cook a top 6 round and still lose. (Poor Kevin Lee)
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