This post covers the overall averages of various snake draft strategies worked in 2023 compared to previous years. New this year is a comparison based on specific league settings. If interested in a specific comparison, use the widget at the bottom to explore different options (league size, PPR, scoring settings, roster settings, etc.). Some combinations may lead to small sample sizes, so use with caution. With that, let’s dig in.
This is somehow the 5th installment of my snake draft strategy breakdowns. I always find it interesting to see hard numbers on different strategies performed the previous year, especially for planning my strategy this year. As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat itself, but if you look closely, you will find that it rhymes. The 2023 season certainly rhymes with previous years with many of the general trends holding with some slight tweaks.
With that said, lets remind ourselves what happened in 2023.
The Data
As with previous posts, I will use real draft data from ~2100 public ESPN leagues and ~6300 Sleeper leagues, giving us access to almost 90,000 teams from the 2023 season. All included leagues were either 8, 10, or 12 teams, Standard, half PPR, or full PPR scoring, non-superflex, with similar roster sizes and scoring limits (no 20 player starting lineups here). Additionally, all included teams set a lineup each week. We will use change in championship odds as our marker of success. In short, if you followed this strategy, how did your chances of winning the championship change? Additionally, like last year’s post, we will compare 2023 to an average of previous seasons, in this case the 2019-2022 seasons for ESPN leagues and the 2022 season for Sleeper leagues.
With that out of the way, lets look at the results.
Draft Pick Slot
Remember that I said history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. That’s how I see the 2023 draft pick slot analysis for ESPN and Sleeper leagues. In ESPN, we see the advantage of drafting in the first half remains advantageous, though unlike previous years, the number one overall pick was still advantageous in 2023. Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey (the general top 2 picks) along with Jalen Hurts at the 2-3 turn, made for a much stronger showing of the number one overall pick compared to previous years. Sleeper tends to have less extreme effects but still shows a clear advantage for the first 5 picks in 2022 and 2023. The general takeaway is an advantage to picking in the first half, although the difference in championship odds between those picks is negligible.
When to draft a QB
Last year, there was a push to draft QBs early with Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Lamar, and Burrow all going in the first 3 rounds. Interestingly, we see a clear divide between platforms here. On ESPN, targeting a QB in the third round was rewarded, with the strategy being to draft one in the 3rd or stream the position by hitting at the end of the draft (likely due to the success of players like Jordan Love and CJ Stroud). Sleeper on the other hand followed historical trends, rewarding teams that waited for a QB. Personally, I expect I will wait on QB this year after targeting Hurts early last year. But we’ll see what happens when under fire in the draft.
When to draft a TE
Here again we see some stark differences compared to years past in ESPN leagues. I blame Travis Kelce, who after years of being one of the most valuable picks finally busted while being drafted in the first round. Other perennial top TEs like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller also had down years. Instead, later picks like Evan Engram and Sam Leporta were top options. A similar effect likely drove the upward climb in Sleeper leagues. While the consensus this year seems to be to target the first 6ish TEs, which would be a return to years past in ESPN, I wouldn’t be afraid to punt the position either.
First 2 Positions
This year Zero- or Hero-RB are all the rage and the results of ESPN teams in 2023 show why. Taking an RB in the first and a WR in the second, or 2 WRs were by far the best strategies in ESPN. While sleeper differed, comparable improvements were seen compared to historical averages. These probably represent the largest differences from historical averages and makes me wonder if the move this year is to zag and go for a robust RB build?
Adjusting for your league's settings
One limitation with averages is that every league is different. Different league settings and managers affect the results. To account for this, I encourage you to use the widget below to explore different settings and apply filters for an optimal comparison. For more insights on your league, check out Fantasy League Report. It includes a pre-draft scouting report which provides insights on your league, which positions tend to be over or under drafted, how stream-able positions are, and the typical makeup of your opponents’ teams.
Limitations
As I said from the outset, every year is different, as are the leagues, and averages end up fitting no one (look up the story of air force cockpit design if you question this). That being said, they do give us a sense of base performance, and while I doubt your league will perfectly match these stats, I bet they’ll rhyme.
Conclusion
In summary, you should:
Try to pick in the first 5 picks
Draft a QB in the 3rd/4th or wait until the end
Wait to draft a TE
Remember that Hero/Zero RB worked well last year, but had poor performance over the previous 4 years.
Each decision has a small effect on your championship odds (~2%) but nailing all of them could set you up for a championship season.
Happy Drafting!
Questions? Comments? Let me know at ac@alexcates.com. Want to read more breakdowns like this? sign up for my newsletter. Finally, like what I do? Consider supporting me on buy me a coffee or by signing up for fantasyleaguereport.com
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